PROVO, Utah – Another game day has arrived and this week it’s # 15 BYU vs USF.
When the Programs first met two years ago, BYU suffered a shocking loss to the Bulls. A defeat that put Kalani Sitake in the hot seat with a 2-4 record halfway through this season.
Since that problematic start two years ago, Sitake’s program has scored 19 wins in its last 22 games. BYU has found a winning culture since the last minute with USF. Now revenge will be on mind when the Cougars host the Bulls tonight at 8:15 p.m. on ESPN2 and KSL NewsRadio.
For USF, the Bulls have gone in a different direction, winning just one game against an FBS team since that surprising victory over BYU. The Bulls come to Provo 1-2 on the season, with their only win over Florida A&M.
# 15 BYU vs. USF
Kick-off: 8:15 p.m. (GMT)
Television: ESPN2
Radio: KSL NewsRadio (102.7 FM, 1160 AM)
Now is the time for the 3-2-1 Game Day preview plus a score prediction.
Three matchday thoughts
1. BYU should win regardless of quarterback
When Jaren Hall lost to Arizona State last week, the red-shirted second-year quarterback left the game early for the locker room. At the post-match press conference, he made a surprise appearance to tell everyone he had just lost his breath. And that he would be fine for the USF game next week.
Since last Saturday’s post-game comments, the coaches have remained close to Hall’s status for tonight’s game. If BYU limits Hall or has to turn to Baylor Romney or freshman Jacob Conover, the Cougars should be able to navigate that game against USF with a win. The Bulls defense has allowed 523.7 yards per game and is 125th nationally in total defense.
Last week, offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick showed the kind of confidence he has in Baylor Romney by calling a contraband pass for him after four hours without a pass to seal the victory over ASU. Coaches from Roderick and BYU have said they believe they have three quarterbacks that could win games for them throughout the offseason.
If Hall can’t play, it’s a missed opportunity for him and the offense to put big numbers on the scoreboard. Something they haven’t done yet this season against three Power Five opponents. We’ll find out tonight which direction BYU is going with Hall availability.
2. Run, run and run football even more
A shift room’s best friend when faced with some issues is an explosive ground attack. BYU will have to throw the ball early and often with Tyler Allgeier. USF uses a unique 3-3-5 defensive pattern and has had a demanding schedule at this point in the season, but they haven’t been able to stop the run. The Bulls are 125th nationally in running defense at 262.7 yards per game.
BYU should be looking to feed Allgeier a lot in this football game. However, it could also be a game where BYU digs into their depth and shows RB3 Jackson McChesney and fourth string ball carrier Hinckley Ropati.
3. Don’t give the underdog any hope early in the game
For home games, the BYU football team stays at the Hyatt Place near Freedom Blvd. During their stay last night, they were likely lucky enough to spot the UNLV scaring Fresno State No.22. UNLV entered that game as a 30-point underdog, but ended up with a 14-0 lead in the first quarter. Fresno State ultimately won the game 38-30, but it was a tough game for the nationally ranked Bulldogs.
The last thing BYU wants is for USF to receive hope and build momentum at the start of the football game. Because once a major underdog starts gaining hope, it can change the whole outlook for a game and make it a lot more difficult than you expected.
It would be in BYU’s best interests to quickly take the lead and jump into USF early. Especially if they want to keep climbing the national rankings.
BYU vs. USF questions
1. What impact does Keenan Pili’s injury have on defense?
MIKE linebacker Keenan Pili suffering from an ACL tear is a big setback for the BYU defense. But that’s not a problem Cougars can’t get over. Heading into this game against USF, BYU is 29th nationally in defense, allowing just 16.7 points per game.
Ben Bywater enters the spot MIKE, a young freshman who has thrived at the Rover spot this season. Bywater, a former rugby star at Olympus High, is set to be in the spotlight as MIKE linebacker at the heart of BYU’s defense.
But as Kalani Sitake pointed out in his weekly press conference, Pili’s loss will not be replaced by a single player. BYU is all about having hybrid athletes who can play a variety of roles. Is Ilaisa Tuiaki tapping into the cross-training that BYU has used with its athletes to bring new faces to the linebacker?
2. How many fans will be attending?
The last two home games have created some memorable atmospheres for BYU fans. However, both of those matches were against nationally ranked opponents. So what will the turnout look like at LES tonight for a late night kick against an opponent who isn’t very good on paper?
The first two games produced a full house then more than 61,000 spectators. You have to go back to 2013 to find the last time BYU averaged over 60,000 fans per home competition in a season. So if BYU fans show up for this one, there’s a good chance it’s going to be a huge year for footfall brands that Cougars haven’t seen in a while.
Score prediction
BYU are the better team in this game, no matter who they deploy in the quarterback. USF lost one of its top receivers to a season-ending injury last week, which isn’t helping their cause. Plus, first-year quarterback Timmy McClain is no complete stranger coming into this game. BYU’s coaches have a movie on him and will have a plan that will keep him and that Bulls’ offense from finding the end zone often.
I expect BYU to build up a fast lead and maintain the lead throughout. Expect it to be a huge night for Tyler Allgeier and the BYU defense.
BYU 31, USF 10
Mitch Harper is a BYU insider for KSLsports.com and host of the Cougar Tracks podcast (SUBSCRIBE) and Cougar Sports Saturday (Saturday 12 p.m. to 3 p.m.) on KSL Newsradio. Follow him on Twitter: @Mitch_Harper.