Things were looking really good for the Cincinnati Reds. They looked set for their sixth straight win as they had a 98.7% chance of winning with a 6-1 lead in the 8th inning.
The Reds’ pen came into play Tuesday with a 17.0 scoreless streak. Tonight they only had to cover two innings with a 6-point lead. They couldn’t do it. Here’s how the night went:
The Reds started the scoring in the third inning with a brace from Jonathan India from 400 feet, RBI.
A few batters later, Joey Votto trebled to make it 3-0.
Kyle Farmer kept the offense buzzing with a 2-run homer in the fourth inning to increase the lead to 5-0. Farmer would end the evening a triple shy of the cycle.
Luis Castillo continued his return to dominance on Tuesday night. He allowed only one run, 3 hits, 1 walk and struck out 4 strikes in seven innings. He started with a 6-1 lead.
It was all downhill from there. Cinel Perez allowed a two-run homerun in the 8th. Brad Brach released his jam in the 8th, but he didn’t have it in the 9th. He started with runners on second and third after a painful mistake by Eugenio Suarez, with a 6-4 lead and 0 out. Heath Hembree came on. He came out with the game tied and the point winning in third. Amir Garrett has come. He struck out Andrew Benintendi at bat, but Salvador Perez hit a ball against the wall to end the misery.
The Reds will go for a series victory tomorrow. The Reds are 21-13 in their last 34 games.
The biggest game in the game
According to statistics from Fangraphs WPA (payout percentage added), the most important game in the game has been Heath Hembree giving a 2 RBI hit to Nicky Lopez, who rose to third on an Aristides Aquino error. This game decreased the Reds’ odds of winning by 53.0% (from 69.7% to 16.8%).
Good points
Tyler stephenson had a night of 3 hits. His OPS on the season is now at .814.
kyle farmer completed one home run and finished three times the run. Despite all of his shortcomings against RHP, Farmer has a career of 0.758 OPS against LHP (0.749 entering tonight this season).
Eugene Suárez had a big insurance RBI. Ironically, he had a 76.1 EV. He had two hard-hit bullets the night he was pulled.
Luis Castillo now has a 2.00 ERA in 7 starts since June 1. The funny thing is, this is possibly one of Castillo’s worst start to the year. He allowed 12 hard-hitting balls, but only walked one batter. He absolutely deserved a start like this after the terrible luck he had at the start of the year when nothing could go right.
The Reds had a crazy night defensively. They had some really nice pieces, but also some uglier ones (more below). Aristide Aquino had a pair of nice catches, Tyler naquin had a big sliding grip, Shogo Akiyama had a nice outlet and Kyle’s farmer played his usual strong defense, starting the round with a smooth double play.
Negative
Cionel Perez ended the Reds’ 17-game scoreless streak. He pulled out Whit Merrifield (career .845 OPS vs. LHP) on a nice fastball of 98 MPH from top to bottom. He then cleared a bomb to LHB, Andrew Benintendi (career .679 OPS vs LHP). Perez certainly has talent, but he just doesn’t fit into the MLB roster just yet, especially for a team hoping to compete.
Eugene Suárez made a brutal error on a ball which was directly hit with him. It could have potentially been a double play (the Reds would have had a 6-3 lead, 1 out of a win with just 1 runner on base), but at least should have been an out. Aristide Aquino was fortunate enough to knock out the tie two batters later. He launched a missile, straight online, but mailed it (Bell praised the post-match launch in a do-or-die situation). The Reds would still have been sidelined from a win.
Jonathan India had to quit the game earlier. He missed yesterday with pain after being hit by a pitch on Sunday.
David Bell said Jonathan India was “just under 100%” with his running style, which is why he left the match in the 6th round. Bell said India could start tomorrow. #Red
– Bobby Nightengale (@nightengalejr) July 7, 2021
Thoughts not so random….
Tonight was a really tough loss. The Reds obviously need the bullpen’s help, but the defense was probably just as to blame. This kind of thing does happen though. Remember, the Reds just won five straight games where they were lagging behind in every game (meaning their opponent lost a lead every night). It was a missed opportunity, but I would certainly have enjoyed a road series victory before this series started. Hopefully the Reds can do it tomorrow with Sonny Gray on the mound.
I thought that David Bell make the right call after having Amir Garrett throw to Salvador Perez with an open goal in place of Carlos Santana with the goals loaded (2 strikeouts in the 9th, draw). Garrett has a very bad 5.88 BB / 9 rate, so you don’t want him tossing with the bases loaded and walking in the winning race. Perez only walks in 2.3% of his plate appearances, while Santana walks in 15.5%. It would have been really difficult for Garrett to get Santana out with his lack of a punch.
the The brewers were rained tonight at the Mets, which means the Reds are now back for 6.5 games. The Brewers will play a pair of 7-innings doubles programs tomorrow before the Reds play a four-game streak against them in Milwaukee. The Brewers chose to pitch tomorrow’s scheduled SP Corbin Burnes in Game 1 against Jacob DeGrom. It’s a high risk, high reward call for the Brewers. This gives them a better chance of sweeping DH tomorrow, but also a greater chance of being swept away. Brewers were at +245 tonight and -147 tomorrow. I guess they are now slight underdogs in both games. I’m not sure this is what I would have done with a 6.0 lead. Hopefully this backfires.
I loved India / Stephenson / Castellanos hitting 1-3 against an LH SP. I think the Reds should be doing this all season. All of these guys have been hitting LHP really well all year.
Help is on the way! Michael lorenzen pitched a scoreless inning during his first appearance in rehab.
Michael Lorenzen looked great on his rehab mission in a perfect eighth round.
His fastball hit 97, but his slider was his best throw.
– Charlie Goldsmith (@CharlieG__) July 7, 2021
Following:
Reds at Royals
Wednesday, 2:10 p.m.
Television: Bally Sports Ohio
Sonny Gray (3.27 ERA) vs. Brady Singer (4.74 ERA)