Michigan football is ranked sixth in the overall standings of the updated ESPN FPI (Football Power Index), which uses advanced analytics to try to predict how teams will fare. While the Wolverines opponent may not have been prominent this week, what corn and blue did to the NIU Huskies was enough for ESPN FPI to change the outlook for the Ann Arbor squad. .
In a really, really, really big way.
While ESPN REIT still insists Michigan has a low chance of winning (2.5%), it wasn’t zero to something. The Wolverines aren’t the highest-rated Big Ten team either, of course, but something big happened overnight: The predictions now make them win every game except one, the only failure being a full draw. Yet, however, the predicted loss, although it has increased, causes Michigan to win 9.6 and lose 2.7, meaning a 9-3 or 10-2 season is likely.
Compared to what ESPN REIT said last week, the numbers have risen a lot in Michigan’s favor. See the match-by-match predictions below.
Week 4: Rutgers
Photo: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Previously: 81.4% Michigan win
Now: 87.1% win in Michigan
The context
Yes, Rutgers has improved considerably, but advanced analysis indicates that it should be a decisive victory for Michigan. It’s not the easiest game on the calendar, but it’s certainly getting closer and closer to it. Still, despite a triple-overtime thriller last year, there’s no indication the Wolverines will lose to Rutgers. But, they play games for a reason.
Week 5: in Wisconsin
Chez Mellusi of Wisconsin celebrates his touchdown run during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Penn State on Saturday, September 4, 2021 in Madison, Wisconsin. Penn State won 16-10. (AP Photo / Morry Gash)
Previously: 48.4% win in Michigan
Now: 61.5% win in Michigan
The context
A complete turnaround from a probable loss to a toss, now a probable win.
Wisconsin was on vacation this week and has Notre Dame in Week 4, but Michigan’s performance, a third straight annihilation, won it favor in the eyes of advanced analytics. If you’ve listened to or watched Wednesday’s Locked On Wolverines podcast, you would have heard PFF’s Anthony Treash proclaim that Michigan will beat Wisconsin this year. It seems far-fetched given no wins at Madison since 2001, but it might be the year.
Week 6: in Nebraska
Photo: Dylan Widger-USA TODAY Sports
Previously: 63.1% win in Michigan
Now: 71.2% win in Michigan
The context
Nebraska are now 2-2 after losing narrowly to Oklahoma, which was a surprise following week three. But the Huskers are still inconsistent and haven’t been able to close games like this week’s. Certainly, the change in numbers is more reflective of what Michigan is doing than Nebraska.
Week 8: Northwest
Photo: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports
Previously: 89.2% win in Michigan
Now: Michigan’s 93.6% win
The context
The Wildcats look miserable right now. We have them as the worst Big Ten team right now, an incredible fall from grace. NU lost to Duke and it wasn’t until after his epic comeback that it wasn’t a blowout as he gave up 27 unanswered points before deciding to put in 23. It’s the easiest game. of Michigan’s schedule now, and that might even include NIU who the Wolverines just beat 63-10. Northwestern is the least experienced team at the conference and it really shows.
Week 9: at Michigan State
Photo: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Previously: 53.3% win in Michigan
Now: 55.1% win in Michigan
The context
This is the one we thought would definitely fall. MSU was the frontrunner here for the entire preseason, but after Michigan’s win over Washington, ESPN FPI gave Michigan a slight advantage. And MSU went impressively to beat Miami (FL) on the road, which seemed like enough to get a little more love from the Spartans out of the analysis. It turns out, not so much.
Michigan is even more favored on the road, but the game is sure to be tough and either side could win. In fact, Jim Harbaugh has yet to lose at Spartan Stadium.
Week 10: Indiana
Photo: Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports
Previously: Michigan’s 78% win
Now: 88.9% win in Michigan
The context
The Hoosiers lost a tough game to Cincinnati, and as improved as the Bearcats may be, there’s a good chance you can’t be a top Big Ten team and lose to Cincinnati.
Still, we’re surprised at how great ESPN REIT Michigan has here. However, the Wolverines have lost to Indiana only once since 1987 – last year at Bloomington. Obviously, the idea is that it was an aberration.
Week 11: at Penn State
Photo: Isaiah Hole
Previously: 36.4% win in Michigan
Now: Michigan’s 50% win
The context
Honestly, this is the biggest shock. Penn State just defeated a very good Auburn side at Happy Valley and although the defense has a few questions after Bo Nix got past them and the offense couldn’t throw the ball, it looks like the conference is passing. by State College. However, that game has gone from being a final loss to a draw, with Michigan now tied with Penn State in predictions.
Winning at Penn State is always tough, but Jim Harbaugh did it in 2015.
Week 12: in Maryland
Photo: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Previously: 69.2% win in Michigan
Now: 80.3% win in Michigan
The context
Maryland had appeared to have improved significantly this year – the key word being “watched”. The Terps are still undefeated right now and this game is still on their own turf, but almost losing to hapless Illinois has a way to tip this game in the Wolverines’ favor. ESPN REIT certainly thinks there’s no way Michigan will lose this one.
Week 13: Ohio State
Previously: 40.3% win in Michigan
Now: 53.7% win in Michigan
The context
Don’t rub your eyes Michigan fans, yes that says what he said above: ESPN FPI now predicts Wolverines will beat Ohio State at home in 2021. Watch: Ohio State has the looked incredibly vulnerable and was perhaps a bad game or two away from losing to the terrible Tulsa this week. Granted, Michigan will show more weakness while Ohio State finds more strength before the game takes place, but advanced analysis suggests the Wolverines have a slight advantage on November 27.
We keep our fingers crossed, it stays that way once that day arrives.